STAT+: HCA expects $1 billion hit from loss of ACA tax credits, Medicaid changes

The country’s biggest hospital chain outlined Tuesday what could be a more than $1 billion hit to profit this year from the expiration of federal tax credits and changes to Medicaid payment programs. 

For many other companies, it’d be a catastrophic proposition. For HCA Healthcare, it’s a speed bump. The company’s stock was up about 8% midday, and analysts remarked that its outlook was better than expected. It just goes to show how much a system of 190 hospitals with over $75 billion in annual revenue can withstand.

On the company’s earnings call for the fourth quarter of 2025, CEO Sam Hazen outlined this year’s challenges. They include a reduction of between $600 million and $900 million to the company’s earnings before income, taxes, and depreciation, a form of profit known as EBITDA, from the expiration of the Affordable Care Act’s enhanced premium tax credits. It’s a lot of money, but a small chunk of the up to $16.5 billion in EBITDA that HCA expects to generate this year. 

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