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Tag: confidence

  • Fundamental bounds on efficiency-confidence trade-off for transductive conformal prediction

    Fundamental bounds on efficiency-confidence trade-off for transductive conformal prediction arXiv:2509.04631v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Transductive conformal prediction addresses the simultaneous prediction for multiple data points. Given a desired confidence level, the objective is to construct a prediction set that includes the true outcomes with the prescribed confidence. We demonstrate a fundamental trade-off between confidence and…

  • Bag of Coins: A Statistical Probe into Neural Confidence Structures

    Bag of Coins: A Statistical Probe into Neural Confidence Structures arXiv:2507.19774v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Modern neural networks, despite their high accuracy, often produce poorly calibrated confidence scores, limiting their reliability in high-stakes applications. Existing calibration methods typically post-process model outputs without interrogating the internal consistency of the predictions themselves. In this work, we introduce…

  • Derandomizing Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Band-Limited Functions by Improved Norm Bounds and Majority-Voting Schemes

    Derandomizing Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Band-Limited Functions by Improved Norm Bounds and Majority-Voting Schemes arXiv:2506.17764v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Band-limited functions are fundamental objects that are widely used in systems theory and signal processing. In this paper we refine a recent nonparametric, nonasymptotic method for constructing simultaneous confidence regions for band-limited functions from noisy input-output…

  • Improved Online Confidence Bounds for Multinomial Logistic Bandits

    Improved Online Confidence Bounds for Multinomial Logistic Bandits arXiv:2502.10020v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this paper, we propose an improved online confidence bound for multinomial logistic (MNL) models and apply this result to MNL bandits, achieving variance-dependent optimal regret. Recently, Lee & Oh (2024) established an online confidence bound for MNL models and achieved nearly…

  • Confidence Intervals for Evaluation of Data Mining

    Confidence Intervals for Evaluation of Data Mining arXiv:2502.07016v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In data mining, when binary prediction rules are used to predict a binary outcome, many performance measures are used in a vast array of literature for the purposes of evaluation and comparison. Some examples include classification accuracy, precision, recall, F measures, and Jaccard…