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Tag: coverage

  • Weighted Conformal Prediction Provides Adaptive and Valid Mask-Conditional Coverage for General Missing Data Mechanisms

    Weighted Conformal Prediction Provides Adaptive and Valid Mask-Conditional Coverage for General Missing Data Mechanisms arXiv:2512.14221v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, but it fails to guarantee coverage when faced with missing covariates. In addressing the heterogeneity induced by various missing patterns, Mask-Conditional Valid (MCV) Coverage has emerged…

  • The Coverage Principle: How Pre-training Enables Post-Training

    The Coverage Principle: How Pre-training Enables Post-Training arXiv:2510.15020v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Language models demonstrate remarkable abilities when pre-trained on large text corpora and fine-tuned for specific tasks, but how and why pre-training shapes the success of the final model remains poorly understood. Notably, although pre-training success is often quantified by cross entropy loss, cross-entropy…

  • Conformal Prediction for Long-Tailed Classification

    Conformal Prediction for Long-Tailed Classification arXiv:2507.06867v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many real-world classification problems, such as plant identification, have extremely long-tailed class distributions. In order for prediction sets to be useful in such settings, they should (i) provide good class-conditional coverage, ensuring that rare classes are not systematically omitted from the prediction sets, and (ii)…

  • Backward Conformal Prediction

    Backward Conformal Prediction arXiv:2505.13732v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We introduce $textit{Backward Conformal Prediction}$, a method that guarantees conformal coverage while providing flexible control over the size of prediction sets. Unlike standard conformal prediction, which fixes the coverage level and allows the conformal set size to vary, our approach defines a rule that constrains how prediction…

  • Rectifying Conformity Scores for Better Conditional Coverage

    Rectifying Conformity Scores for Better Conditional Coverage arXiv:2502.16336v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present a new method for generating confidence sets within the split conformal prediction framework. Our method performs a trainable transformation of any given conformity score to improve conditional coverage while ensuring exact marginal coverage. The transformation is based on an estimate of…

  • Optimal Transport-based Conformal Prediction

    Optimal Transport-based Conformal Prediction arXiv:2501.18991v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conformal Prediction (CP) is a principled framework for quantifying uncertainty in blackbox learning models, by constructing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Traditional approaches rely on scalar nonconformity scores, which fail to fully exploit the geometric structure of multivariate outputs, such as in multi-output regression or…