Tag: regime
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On the Identifiability of Regime-Switching Models with Multi-Lag Dependencies
On the Identifiability of Regime-Switching Models with Multi-Lag Dependencies arXiv:2601.03325v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Identifiability is central to the interpretability of deep latent variable models, ensuring parameterisations are uniquely determined by the data-generating distribution. However, it remains underexplored for deep regime-switching time series. We develop a general theoretical framework for multi-lag Regime-Switching Models (RSMs), encompassing…
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Regime-Aware Conditional Neural Processes with Multi-Criteria Decision Support for Operational Electricity Price Forecasting
Regime-Aware Conditional Neural Processes with Multi-Criteria Decision Support for Operational Electricity Price Forecasting arXiv:2508.00040v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This work integrates Bayesian regime detection with conditional neural processes for 24-hour electricity price prediction in the German market. Our methodology integrates regime detection using a disentangled sticky hierarchical Dirichlet process hidden Markov model (DS-HDP-HMM) applied to…