Tag: tcp
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Temporal Conformal Prediction (TCP): A Distribution-Free Statistical and Machine Learning Framework for Adaptive Risk Forecasting
Temporal Conformal Prediction (TCP): A Distribution-Free Statistical and Machine Learning Framework for Adaptive Risk Forecasting arXiv:2507.05470v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We propose Temporal Conformal Prediction (TCP), a novel framework for constructing prediction intervals in financial time-series with guaranteed finite-sample validity. TCP integrates quantile regression with a conformal calibration layer that adapts online via a decaying…