Tag: winner
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Beating the Winner’s Curse via Inference-Aware Policy Optimization
Beating the Winner’s Curse via Inference-Aware Policy Optimization arXiv:2510.18161v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: There has been a surge of recent interest in automatically learning policies to target treatment decisions based on rich individual covariates. A common approach is to train a machine learning model to predict counterfactual outcomes, and then select the policy that optimizes…
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A Flexible Defense Against the Winner’s Curse
A Flexible Defense Against the Winner’s Curse arXiv:2411.18569v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Across science and policy, decision-makers often need to draw conclusions about the best candidate among competing alternatives. For instance, researchers may seek to infer the effectiveness of the most successful treatment or determine which demographic group benefits most from a specific treatment. Similarly,…