{"id":9526,"date":"2026-01-06T07:02:33","date_gmt":"2026-01-06T07:02:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mailitics.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/06\/2601-01147\/"},"modified":"2026-01-06T07:02:33","modified_gmt":"2026-01-06T07:02:33","slug":"2601-01147","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mailitics.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/06\/2601-01147\/","title":{"rendered":"Conformal Blindness: A Note on $A$-Cryptic change-points"},"content":{"rendered":"

Conformal Blindness: A Note on $A$-Cryptic change-points
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arXiv:2601.01147v1 Announce Type: new
\nAbstract: Conformal Test Martingales (CTMs) are a standard method within the Conformal Prediction framework for testing the crucial assumption of data exchangeability by monitoring deviations from uniformity in the p-value sequence. Although exchangeability implies uniform p-values, the converse does not hold. This raises the question of whether a significant break in exchangeability can occur, such that the p-values remain uniform, rendering CTMs blind. We answer this affirmatively, demonstrating the phenomenon of emph{conformal blindness}.
\n Through explicit construction, for the theoretically ideal “oracle” conformity measure (given by the true conditional density), we demonstrate the possibility of an emph{$A$-cryptic change-point} (where $A$ refers to the conformity measure). Using bivariate Gaussian distributions, we identify a line along which a change in the marginal means does not alter the distribution of the conformity scores, thereby producing perfectly uniform p-values.
\n Simulations confirm that even a massive distribution shift can be perfectly cryptic to the CTM, highlighting a fundamental limitation and emphasising the critical role of the alignment of the conformity measure with potential shifts.<\/div>\n

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\n Johan Hallberg Szabadv’ary
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Conformal Blindness: A Note on $A$-Cryptic change-points arXiv:2601.01147v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conformal Test Martingales (CTMs) are a standard method within the Conformal Prediction framework for testing the crucial assumption of data exchangeability by monitoring deviations from uniformity in the p-value sequence. Although exchangeability implies uniform p-values, the converse does not hold. This raises the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[62,113,112],"tags":[1019,1020,4549],"class_list":["post-9526","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-aimldsaimlds","category-cs-lg","category-stat-ml","tag-change","tag-conformal","tag-cryptic"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mailitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9526"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mailitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mailitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mailitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mailitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9526"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mailitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9526\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mailitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9526"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mailitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9526"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mailitics.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9526"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}